The Crypto Crises Are Coming by Simon Johnson

Simon Johnson warns that new US legislation leaves the industry just where it wants to be: without regulatory safeguards.

Under its emerging legislative framework, the United States is poised to become a major hub for cryptocurrency-related activities. But in its eagerness to do the crypto industry’s bidding, Congress has exposed Americans and the world to the risk of severe economic damage, including massive job losses and wealth destruction.

WASHINGTON, DC – Having adopted one major piece of digital-currency legislation (the GENIUS Act) and with more pending (the CLARITY Act has passed the House of Representatives), the United States is poised to become a major hub for cryptocurrency-related activities, or even – taking President Donald Trump literally – the “crypto capital of the world.” But those who support the new legislation should be careful what they wish for.

Unfortunately, the crypto industry has acquired so much political power – primarily through political donations – that the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act have been designed to prevent reasonable regulation. The result will most likely be a boom-bust cycle of epic proportions.

Historically, US financial markets’ major advantage compared to other countries has been relatively greater transparency, which enables investors to gain a deeper understanding of risks and make better-informed decisions. The US also has strict rules against conflicts of interest, requirements to treat investors fairly (including by protecting their assets in proper custody arrangements), and limits on how much risk many financial firms can take.

This framework is not an accident or something that emerged purely through market competition. Rather, it is the result of sensible laws and regulations that were created during the 1930s (after a major disaster) and that have evolved in a reasonable fashion since then. These rules are the major reason why it is so easy in the US to do business, to bring new ideas to market, and to raise capital to support innovation of all kinds.

Any individual entrepreneur or even a potential new industry (such as crypto) may balk at these rules, claiming that they are different from anything the world has ever seen. But financial innovation involves risks for the entire financial system, not just for individual investors. The point of regulation is to protect the whole.

Many major economies – including the US – learned this the hard way. Over the past 200 years, they have experienced severe financial disruptions and even systemic meltdowns. One such collapse was a major contributor to the Great Depression, which began with a stock-market crash in 1929 and spilled over to bring down many banks (and other investments), destroying millions of Americans’ wealth and dreams. Avoiding a repeat of that experience has long been an important policy goal.

But the GENIUS Act does not advance this goal. The law creates a framework for stablecoins, an important emerging digital asset, issued by US and foreign firms, that purports to maintain a stable value against a particular currency or commodity, with the US dollar being the most popular anchor. Stablecoins are useful to investors active in cryptocurrency trading, enabling them to move into and out of particular crypto assets without having to navigate the traditional (non-crypto) financial system. We should expect significant demand, including from non-financial firms (such as Walmart and Amazon) seeking to bypass established payment systems.